BlackRock’s IBIT ETF on Track to Flip GBTC After Bitcoin Halving: Bloomberg Analyst

BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) is on track to flip the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) before the end of the month, according to analysts.

“GBTC currently hanging on to a $2.3 billion lead,” Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Eric Balchunas wrote on Twitter. “A monster rally in BTC could delay it a bit but I think 4/30 is a solid over/under date.”

For context, this time last week the gap between the two spot Bitcoin ETFs—the two largest in the U.S.—was approximately $4 billion.

BlackRock’s IBIT has been framed as the usurper that would unseat Grayscale’s longstanding fund since before it was even approved.

GBTC began trading in 2013, but was only available to accredited and institutional investors. The fund saw its assets under management surpass $43 billion in November 2021. But the same time the following year, amid widespread turmoil in crypto markets, the fund’s AUM sank as low below $10 billion.

When the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission approved GBTC to be converted into a spot Bitcoin ETF in January, the fund had $28.6 billion worth of assets. GBTC has since seen its AUM sink to $19.5 billion, as investors switched to rival ETFs that offered lower fees.

Earlier this month, Grayscale CEO Michael Sonnenshein pointed the finger at selling linked to the bankruptcies of FTX and other crypto firms, noting that “GBTC is the collateral that was inside some of the bankruptcy estates around the crypto ecosystem,” and arguing that phase is largely “behind us.”

It’s worth pointing out that the value of Grayscale’s assets under management fluctuate with Bitcoin prices. Even so, despite a recent period of cooling off for the Bitcoin price, BTC has gained 35% since January 11.

At the time of writing, BTC is changing hands for just north of $63,000.

That cooling off after setting a new all-time high last month has been enough to leave Bitcoin ETFs with three straight days of outflows. Approximately $58 million worth of shares were redeemed yesterday, according to Coinglass. That brings the 3-day total (Friday, Monday and Tuesday—traditional markets aren’t open on the weekends) to $149 million.

Bitcoin traders will no doubt be looking to see how the next halving event plays out in the markets. The Bitcoin halving—which cuts the reward paid to Bitcoin miners from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC—currently looks like it’ll take place late on Friday, April 19. The change in date is much to the dismay of 4/20 observants who were counting on celebrating Bitcoin and marijuana on the same day.